Utica Observer-Dispatch reporter Elizabeth Cooper has two articles in today’s paper about the 2008 election in New York’s 24th District. Her first story raises a question that I asked more than a month ago: Will Republicans put up a fight against freshman Rep. Michael Arcuri in 2008? Cooper’s conclusion: It doesn’t look promising.

The article would confirm Robert Novak’s outlook on New York’s 24th District. He didn’t include it on a list of the most-likely targets in 2008. Novak also left off two other Upstate New York seats won by Democrats last year. When I asked Novak’s right-hand man, David Freddoso, about the list, he told me those areas are trending Democrat. “They’re all in for life if they play it smart,” Freddoso told me of the Democrat incumbents.

Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, has tried to keep an upbeat attitude about finding a challenger to Arcuri. However, in a Roll Call article last week, he made no mention of the 24th District. (Spain did talk about New York’s 19th and 20th districts.)

The one possible challenger to Arcuri is Ray Meier, the conservative who ran against him last year. Cooper reports that Meier will make his decision by the end of the summer. As a longtime state senator, Meier has good name recognition in the district. His biggest problem is the fact that he lost, 54%-45%, in what could be described as a landslide in this day and age. (Central New York Political Insider has the details on a few other possible challengers.)

So, what does this all mean? At this stage of the game, we’ll have to take a wait-and-see approach. Republicans would be foolish to throw away the opportunity to put up a strong challenger to Arcuri. In a district that normally tilts Republican (it was carried by President Bush in 2000 and 2004), Arcuri’s liberal voting record won’t play well once someone starts shining some light on it.