05 Jun, 2007

How the Immigration Bill Has Hurt John McCain

Posted by: Rob Bluey In: Capitol Hill| Politics



mccain_060009.jpg, originally uploaded by amanda koster.

Today’s Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire comes at a time when many conservatives are distracted by the immigration debate taking place in Congress. While some candidates, such as Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter, are bound to seize on the issue tonight, the most interesting man to watch will be John McCain, who has staked out an unpopular position alongside the Bush Administration.

Since the bill was introduced two weeks ago, McCain has seen his poll numbers take a hit. (Ryan Sager has a good recap of the latest numbers, which put McCain in fourth place.) As Chris Cillizza reported last week, McCain’s response was to ratchet up the the rhetoric. He did so again today. And I’d venture to guess that he’ll continue to pick a fight with conservatives tonight.

The most interesting number that Sager makes note of is the 51% of Arizona voters who have an unfavorable view of McCain in the wake of the immigration deal. Fellow Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl has also suffered as a result of his association with the agreement.

During a conference call organized by Mitt Romney’s campaign at 3 p.m. today, I asked former Sen. Jim Talent and former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath just how much immigration has hurt McCain. (Romney and McCain have clashed recently on the issue.)

Rath said the issue plays to Romney’s advantage because it shows how he approaches a problem. Talent played down it’s impact, saying, “Romney’s support has been growing for some time long before the immigration bill was introduced.”

Both operatives said that while immigration would certainly play a larger role in tonight’s debate, they didn’t want it to dominate as the issue or the Iraq War overwhelmed everything else at Sunday’s debate among Democrat candidates.

2 Responses to "How the Immigration Bill Has Hurt John McCain"

1 | Bluey Blog | Robert B. Bluey » Mike Huckabee: Immigration Bill Can Be Fixed

June 6th, 2007 at 12:16 pm

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[...] danced around a question of how immigration was changing the dynamics of the race. McCain has dropped from second to fourth place in recent polls. Of his fellow Republican, Huckabee said, “He takes a position and he sticks [...]

2 | Bluey Blog | RobertBluey.com » Reconsidering John McCain

December 29th, 2007 at 11:02 pm

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[...] when immigration dominated the headlines and the senator’s support for comprehensive reform nearly sunk his presidential campaign. It’s strange how a few months and a new issue can change one’s perspective. Today I [...]

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