The Oprah Factor

9 Sep
2007

Tonight I was on CNN (video to come later) talking about Oprah’s impact on the presidential race, particularly among female voters. Her fundraiser for Sen. Barack Obama last night netted $3 million and there’s likely more to come.

When asked to give my analysis tonight, I cited George W. Bush’s memorable appearance on “The Oprah Winfrey Show” back in September 2000 as giving him a boost among female voters. Bush showed his charm and kissed Oprah on the cheek. My sparring partner tonight, Ann Friedman of Feministing, disagreed. She said Bush was already making up the difference with Gore before his appearance on the show, downplaying its impact.

I remembered things differently, so I went back and looked up CNN’s tracking poll for the week before Bush’s Sept. 19 visit to Oprah and the week after. Here’s what I found:

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Gore got a boost after the Democratic National Convention in August (remember the famous kiss with Tipper) and rode that wave into September. As you’ll see from the numbers above, Bush actually lost ground immediately following his appearance with Oprah, but he went ahead of Gore five days after the interview as it continued to get great press. (I’d also attribute Bush’s turnaround to his successful appearance with Regis Philbin on Sept. 21, which also won rave reviews.)

What impact did Oprah have on Election Day? I’m not sure there’s anyway to really know, but I stand by my belief that Bush’s appearance helped. After all, he ended up narrowly winning the white female vote, 49%-48%, against Gore. And we all know that in the 2000 election, every little bit helped. It’s for that reason I think Sen. Hillary Clinton should be nervous. The Oprah-Obama combination will be formidable.

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